Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two pieces that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but oppose paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
